000 AXNT20 KNHC 220557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 49.8W AT 22/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 700 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 18N21W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N22W. THE GYRE AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 20W-26W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-16N BETWEEN 13W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 20N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR RESULTING IN MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL STABILITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS IS INHIBITING AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N77W TO 19N78W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 08N33W TO 09N43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF NEAR 30N82W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. W OF 74W...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE MOST ACTIVE AREA NOTED S OF 13N W OF 79W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SE NICARAGUA. E OF 74W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N59W TO 17N73W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 20-25 KT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N66W WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 25N65W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 30N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N64W INTO THE LOW THEN TO 25N66W TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 56W-67W TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 35N67W IN 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED W OF 70W...WITH 3-5 FT SEAS E OF 70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N45W TO 28N47W TO 27N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 43W- 49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN