000 AXNT20 KNHC 210603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY AT 21/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.4N 46.6W...OR 840 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295 DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT HURRICANE DANNY ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT HURRICANE DANNY ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N27W 14N28W 07N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W...TO 09N67W IN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N20W 10N24W 08N31W 09N38W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N50W AND IT ENDS NEAR 11N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 99W/100W IN MEXICO. MOST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS INLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WAS COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW...MOSTLY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD. COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING INVADED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS NEAR 13N TO 24N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... BETWEEN 78W/JAMAICA AND 94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 07N77W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO 06N81W AND 06N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 09N71W AT LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO 05N74W...TO 02N79W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 74W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. ...HISPANIOLA... OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM 24 HOURS UNTIL 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE DANNY IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE HURRICANE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N65W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 58W...AND FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT