000 AXNT20 KNHC 201112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.2N 43.7W...OR 1040 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN A DISTANCE OF 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W TO 14N63W TO 08N64W IN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A DISTANCE OF 180 NM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 54W NEAR THE COAST OF SURINAME AND 65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS TRINIDAD. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 12N29W AND 13N36W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A DISTANCE OF 180 NM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 54W NEAR THE COAST OF SURINAME AND 65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 99W/100W IN MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT ALSO CUTS ACROSS TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE COLD FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SEPARATE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. RESULTING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 74W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONSISTS OF A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 64W EASTWARD. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...EXCEPT UP TO 13 FEET NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A...AND IT WILL PASS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE 700 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL STORM. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 55W...THANKS TO TWO INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ONE NEAR 34N42W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 32N52W...THAT ARE ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N IN THAT AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 58W...AND FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT