000 AXNT20 KNHC 191722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N21W TO 09N22W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 21 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER...METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 115 NM E-SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 58W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 15N21W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N24W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 12N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF DANNY NEAR 11N45W TO 09N59W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 28W- 36W AND 44W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 21N93W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS LOUISIANA AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS BETWEEN 89W-93W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF...PROVIDING AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 73W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 75W-83W. TO THE E...AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 73W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-77W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE REPORTED. OVERT HE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM DANNY WHICH COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...PLEASE SEE THE ABOVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 35N65W AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEARLY AT THAT SAME POSITION. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 58W-79W. ELSEWHERE...THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ASIDE FROM DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVES...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA