000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W AT 0300 UTC. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE E OF 19W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 38W ...MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS KEEPING THE WAVE DEVOID OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 61W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB ACCORDING TO CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION ACROSS THE E-SE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS GUATEMALA TO EPAC WATERS. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 89W AND HAS BEEN MOVING AT 5 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB ACCORDING TO CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO 08N28W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 07N42W TO 07N50W TO GUYANA COASTLINE NEAR 08N59W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THEN WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE TO SE TEXAS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND FAR W-NW ATLC. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE E GULF SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N82W SW TO 24N87W TO 22N93W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COINCIDING WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT ARE BASIN-WIDE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY LEAVING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE NW BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA TO EPAC WATERS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 61W. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND REMAINDER E CARIBBEAN BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N E OF 81W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WAVE OVER THE E BASIN WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO SATURDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CEASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM 30N76W TO JACKSONVILLE NEAR 30N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THEN WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE TO SE TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND FAR W-NW ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN NORTHERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR