000 AXNT20 KNHC 122338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 170 NM E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N27W TO 10N27W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 22W-30W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N47W TO 07N50W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 45W-55W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUDINESS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING MAINLY ALONG 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 46W- 53W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N76W TO 08N77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 66W-86W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO 09N37. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 10N48W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N52W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 29W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N90W SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 21N AND E OF 95W. TO THE N...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM 27N94W TO 30N85W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N81W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N78W INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS S OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 17N66W TO 13N65W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AT ABOUT 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL-LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A BASE REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 31N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW ATLANTIC REACHING OUR AREA NEAR 31N80W THEN EXTENDS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF STATES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N AND W OF 69W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 28N34W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 35N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N23W TO 27N23W. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING E OF THIS TROUGH SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL BECOME STATIONARY SUPPORTING CONVECTION WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE E ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA