000 AXNT20 KNHC 121057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N SOUTHWARD LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA AND LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N27W 09N37W AND 07N41W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN LAND AND 17W...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 99W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI... THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO LAND BETWEEN 84W THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 92W OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 85W WESTWARD...AROUND THE 20N90W YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 20N90W CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...TOWARD THE BASE OF A 73W/74W TROUGH. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 19N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP EVENTUALLY ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT VARIATIONS IN THE WIND DIRECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N76W. IT IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND AT THIS MOMENT. THE REST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 27N73W...TO 22N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N23W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N23W TO 25N33W AND 26N38W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N48W...TO 20N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N48W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 38W AND 62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE 23N47W CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N28W 24N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N BETWEEN 41W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT