000 AXNT20 KNHC 120604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W/25W...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W 09N30W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N40W TO 08N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 96W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST AND 97W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND LAND. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 24N/25N. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 85W WESTWARD...AROUND THE 19N89W YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 19N89W CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...TOWARD THE BASE OF A 73W/74W TROUGH. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS AROUND HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS AROUND HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 19N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP EVENTUALLY ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT VARIATIONS IN THE WIND DIRECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N74W 25N76W. A SECOND SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS RIGHT BEHIND THE 32N69W 25N76W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N23W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N23W TO 25N33W AND 26N38W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N47W...TO 20N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N47W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 38W AND 62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE 23N47W CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N28W 25N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N67W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 24N/25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT