000 AXNT20 KNHC 111058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N18W 16N19W 12N21W. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED FOR THE 11/0600 UTC ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 10/2300 UTC ASCAT HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA. NO NEARBY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 10N TO 18N...BASED ON THE 10/2300 UTC ASCAT HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N37W TO 09N40W 08N42W 07N45W 08N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N17W 07N25W 07N39W 08N48W 11N53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N88W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY SMALLER-SIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N78W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES EVENTUALLY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/INLAND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N77W MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ALONG 90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 13.5N83W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF WEAKENING/ DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION...AND OTHER AREAS OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION...ARE FROM 80W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA AND 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 18N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME... AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA... HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 30N75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N59W TO A 26N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N28W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N43W...TO 21N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 28N61W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N78W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES EVENTUALLY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT