000 AXNT20 KNHC 102335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N20W TO 12N23W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 12N-21N MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE TRAILING A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 26N15W ALONG 18N19W 11N24W TO 10N34W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N44W 11N56W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-50W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N89W ALONG 26N87W TO 24N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 23N90W TO 28N94W. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N E OF 92W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO OVER S FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N GULF WED NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THU AND THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA AND A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE AND OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU EXCEPT FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AGAIN PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS TUE. WED WILL BRING A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE ISLAND TUE EVENING THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND WED BEFORE THE TROPICAL WAVE WEAKENS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-74W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N69W ALONG 30N72W TO A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW NEAR 30N75W THEN CONTINUES SW TO OVER S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND WEST PALM BEACH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 25N62W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N73W TO 30N65W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N25W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N23W TO 23N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 14W-26W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N50W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W. W ATLC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW