000 AXNT20 KNHC 101800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS NEAR 20W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 19N E OF 25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEING CONFIRMED BY THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT LACK OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEARLY 250 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 57W AND IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW A DRY WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N AND MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. LACK OF CONVECTION N OF 15N IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR AS DEPICTED BY METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N21W TO 09N30W TO 07N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N45W TO 10N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONUS CONVERGING OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N88W TO 24N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. GOES- R CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCT INDICATES EIGHTY PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...A 1015 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N95W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE NW BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE VARIABLE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE WESTERNMOST CENTERED NEAR 19N86W...THE SECOND CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N71W. THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 81W. MODERATE TO HIGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE REGION OF THE EASTERNMOST UPPER LOW...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND S OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W TO A BASE NEAR 27N IN THE SW N ATLC. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N70W SW TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W TO 25N80W. MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION AT THE TOP OF THE DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR