000 AXNT20 KNHC 101052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 14N18W TO 10N24W TO 08N30W AND 08N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 08N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N22W 09N30W 06N37W 07N42W 11N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N85W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS MOVING OFFSHORE...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N85W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF HAITI HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. AN 800 MB TO 600 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 16N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF HAITI HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME... AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA... HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING 32N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 30N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N62W...AND TO 19N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST ONE...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 29N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 21N83W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 29N75W TO 27N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.44 IN BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N41W...TO 14N42W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N41W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N45W AND 27N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN MOST OF THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...EXCEPT WITHIN A RADIUS OF 150 NM TO 240 NM OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 30N24W CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N58W 22N67W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT