000 AXNT20 KNHC 100603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 15N18W TO 10N25W TO 08N30W AND 08N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 08N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N20W 07N40W 10N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N83W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT AN EARLIER TIME. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE 09/2115 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS MOVING OFFSHORE...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N83W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N72W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN 800 MB TO 600 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 16N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME... AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA... HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING 32N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 30N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N62W...AND TO 19N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST ONE...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 29N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 21N83W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N73W TO 28N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY STRONG IS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 0.44 IN BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N41W...TO 14N42W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N41W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N45W AND 27N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN MOST OF THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...EXCEPT WITHIN A RADIUS OF 150 NM TO 240 NM OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 30N24W CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT