000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 32W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. MODERATE TO LOW MOISTURE IS ON THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AS INDICATED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULFING THIS WAVE...WHICH SUPPORT NO CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 49W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. LOW MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS INDICATED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 08N30W TO 09N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N42W TO 06N52W TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N E OF 20W...FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE NE TO E GULF AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NEAR 28N IN THE SW N ATLC. DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH BASE AND THE SE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N E OF 87W...INCLUDING CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 1017 MB HIGH IS W-SW OF THE CONVECTION NEAR 26N87W THAT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE VARIABLE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. CONVECTION OVER THE NE TO E GULF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...EXTENDING TO THE SE BASIN. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE EAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER W-NW PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER WEST...PATCHES OF MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN CUBA ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI AND N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 10N BEING ENHANCED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE SW EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW N ATLC NEAR 26N64W SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NEAR 28N IN THE SW N ATLC GENERATES A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THIS REGION SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 23N80W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR