000 AXNT20 KNHC 081103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE POSITION WAS NOT MOVED WESTWARD IN ORDER FOR THE WAVE TO COINCIDE WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP 700 MB TROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN MOVED WESTWARD TOO FAST IN EARLIER MAP ANALYSES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N50W 08N47W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS LOW-AMPLITUDE ENERGY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 10N30W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N37W TO 09N42W AND 07N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 14N102W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SOME OF THE AFFECTED AREA IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SOME IS INLAND IN MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N88W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...COVERS THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FLOW COVERS THE AREA...IN MANY WAYS RELATED TO THE 27N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 80W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 14N TO 20N...CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 27N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.18 IN BERMUDA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES INLAND IN HISPANIOLA...SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N62W TO 27N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THESE TWO AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N20W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N54W TO 24N66W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N88W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT