000
AXNT20 KNHC 071739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...  
                                          
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
FROM 15N45W TO 08N45W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 40W 
AND 50W. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO AN AREA S OF 12N 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 42W-46W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
20N16W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
09N46W TO 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 500 NM 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 51W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING SW 
REACHING THE NE GULF MAINLY E OF 90W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM 26N-29N AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.  
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 
25N. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
FROM 23N93W TO 20N94W WITH NO CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. 
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   
                                             
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
PREVAILS MAINLY S OF 15N WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF 
PUERTO RICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A 
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE 
SURFACE...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. ALL THESE 
FEATURES COMBINE TO KEEP THE BASIN UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. 
TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ANTILLES 
FROM 18N61W TO 14N61W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. 

...HISPANIOLA... 
                                               
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ANTILLES WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                                              
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS 
EASTERN US COAST IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 73W. TO THE E...A 
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS BEING REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED AT ABOUT 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28 W OF 
70W AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 61W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA