000 AXNT20 KNHC 061748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13.5N 23.5W...IT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST INDICATES THAT IN 24 HOURS THE LOW CENTER WILL BE IN AN AREA OF BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW... ABOUT 460 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WHERE IT IS NOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N38W 13N37W 10N36W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N55W. THE FORECAST FOR THIS LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR IT TO MOVE WESTWARD AND OPEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE BORDER OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13.5N 23.5W...TO 10N29W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N40W TO 08N50W 09N54W AND 09N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W...AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N97W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 09N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 104W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N61W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY HEADING TOWARD 20N10WW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N97W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 09N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 104W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN JAMAICA... HAITI...AND CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTER CORNER OF THE AREA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. PART OF THE WIND FLOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BREAKS AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THAT WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS IT IS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE SAME AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TIME. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THEN END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 650 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERALLY EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME WILL BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY INVERTED TROUGHS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALSO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...FROM 28N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG...TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 28N80W BEYOND 32N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N59W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N45W TO 32N47W TO 25N53W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N61W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY HEADING TOWARD 20N10WW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT