000 AXNT20 KNHC 061036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 17N36W TO 10N33W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 12N WITH HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N23W TO 10N30W TO 09N40W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 09N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS N TO THE SW GULF. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N TO THE FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 18N94W SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...ACROSS FL...TO THE TX GULF COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF AND THE NW GULF THROUGH TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR GUATEMALA SUPPORTS CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N70W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED N OF 18N W OF 72W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US COAST ALONG 72W SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N48W HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N73W AND THEN CONTINUES W ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A WEAKNESS IS OBSERVED IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 29N56W TO 20N58W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N59W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. FARTHER SOUTH...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N53W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE N OF 28N W OF 75W OVER THE W ATLC AS A TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE US COAST LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO