000 AXNT20 KNHC 051804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA... SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76.5W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N21W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND TO BE ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N49W. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W/41W SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. THE TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS ALONG 58W/59W FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS...WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE 05/1200 UTC ANALYSIS IT IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 92W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA...NEAR 14N17W IN SENEGAL TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N21W...TO 09N32W TO 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W TO 12N40W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM THAT ALSO COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 100W. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 10N89W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...16N91W IN GUATEMALA...TO 24N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE RIDGE CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WESTWARD. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 100W. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 10N89W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...16N91W IN GUATEMALA...TO 24N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 11N IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ISLANDS THAT ARE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE SAME AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.44 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.21 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN TRINIDAD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AROUND SANTO DOMINGO WITH FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 60W TROUGH...AND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 32N49W TO 27N57W 22N60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 20N TO 27N. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 24N63W 20N65W. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N20W TO 19N30W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE 29N20W CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT