000 AXNT20 KNHC 270543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE E- NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 28/0600 UTC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W- 24W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED AROUND A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 14W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 29W-40W WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY STRETCHED EAST-WEST FROM 10N-12N WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY CONFINED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 26W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N56W TO 16N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-82W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 10N23W TO 08N33W TO 08N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 08N52W TO 06N58W. NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N84W AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W TO 28N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 82W-89W WITH MID- LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LIMITING ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT ARE INCREASED TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS REACHING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER...ONE NEAR 33N56W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N71W. BOTH SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N56W TO 31N62W TO 33N73W TO 31N79W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 52W-63W...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W-79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 25N57W THEN WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN