000 AXNT20 KNHC 251054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N56W 12N58W 07N60W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N15W AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA...TO 17N23W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N23W TO 08N34W TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N38W TO 04N44W TO 03N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH 33N78W TO 30N81W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W INTO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 32N70W TO 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N60W TO 23N80W LINE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 19N80W TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS....CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS... AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.18 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD... UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W TO 23N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO 12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N36W TO 30N44W...TO 23N59W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR NEAR 23N98W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT