000 AXNT20 KNHC 242341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N39W TO 07N40W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALONG 40W AND THE WAVE AXIS IS AHEAD OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMA PREVAILING E OF 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 14N53W TO 06N56W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN PORTION SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTING CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AFFECTING SURINAME AND GUYANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N83W TO 07N82W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 08N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N41W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 17W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL GULF AS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS NEAR 25N90W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF OUR AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N85W TO 31N78W AND COMBINED WITH UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 85W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 28N AND E OF 89W. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 71W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS W REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WITH THESE FEATURES...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 70W-80W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...A MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-81W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES INCREASING MOISTURE AND SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 37N52W INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N75W THEN EXTENDS W INTO THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS PRECEDE THIS FRONT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 72W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 56W-63W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N49W TO 23N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA