000 AXNT20 KNHC 232342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N36N TO 09N36W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-40W AND THE CURRENT POSITION COINCIDES WITH THE GFS-BASED TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS ONE. A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N74W TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA NEAR 06N76W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ITS POSITION COINCIDES WITH THE GFS-BASED TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC WITH AXIS FROM 17N87W TO 06N87W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD AND SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. MOST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 80W-87W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AFFECTING THE EPAC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N37W TO 07N46W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 20W-30W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS W REACHING THE GULF WATERS AND ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE AFFECTING THE E GULF WATERS MAINLY E OF 84W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 12N AFFECTING PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA COAST REGION WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W IS CURRENTLY MOVING S OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO IT AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND NEAR 19N72W SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI. THIS LOW WILL MOVE W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO 32N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 30N AND W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N54W AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N33W. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SAHARAN AIRMASS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA CONVECTION-FREE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN THESE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS FROM 30N46W TO 22N47W. THIS TROUGH COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N48W THAT CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 44W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA