000 AXNT20 KNHC 230550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 33W FROM 9N-19N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS N OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 15N TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 67W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N22W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 21W-34W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 51W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-42W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 24N91W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N86W. THE WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 92W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 65W-80W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS HISPANIOLA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-79W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING W FRI AND SAT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRI GIVING THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS FRI AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N78W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N46W WHILE A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC BROAD TROUGHING. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 42W-66W. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N34WW AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N50W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW