000 AXNT20 KNHC 221051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 27W/28W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS N OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA BETWEEN PLUMBS OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 60W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 17N TO OVER PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURFACE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N29W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W- 26W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 22N89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N E OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ALONG 12N72W TO 13N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE ISLANDS TO 17N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E CUBA AND WILL DIG FURTHER S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THU AND FRI. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N79W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N47W TO A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 23N65W THEN CONTINUING TO E CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE STRONGER UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 43W-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N48W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW