000 AXNT20 KNHC 220534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 7N-17N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA BETWEEN PLUMBS OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 16N TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N78W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 8N81W MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURFACE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N39W 7N50W TO 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W- 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 22N88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N E OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ALONG 12N72W TO 14N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 16N E OF 67W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA AND WILL DIG FURTHER S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THU AND FRI. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N79W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N48W TO A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 23N64W THEN CONTINUING TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE STRONGER UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 41W-48W AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N63W ALONG 23N67W TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N51W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 27N64W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TONIGHT THEN RETREAT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW