000 AXNT20 KNHC 191804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 38W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 500 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS ALONG 51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE SW OF THE AXIS THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE REMAINING WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 100 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N25W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N35W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 05N53W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 06N TO 13N E OF 24W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA COVERS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE FAR SE GULF WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OBSERVED. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF AND PROVIDES VARIABLE WIND FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KT. A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N82W TO 28N92W THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W AND FROM 24N TO 29N E OF 85W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT THE NW AND SW BASIN...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N82W TO 15N83W WHERE A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...INCLUDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. OVER THE SW BASIN...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 76W. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SE PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA COVERS THE SW N ATLC W OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN NORTHERN-CENTRAL CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND. FARTHER EAST...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE RIDGING. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR