000 AXNT20 KNHC 142359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 42.5N 59.8W AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF CLAUDETTE HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED AND THE CONVECTION IS TO THE E-NE OF THE CENTER. CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N30W TO 07N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT MAINLY FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST N OF 13N. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N48 TO 10N49W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE PICTURES. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE LIMITING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W OF 55W EARLY WED AFTERNOON...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE WED INTO THU...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THU. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT...700 MB STREAMLINES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N91W TO ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 13N92W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT AND SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL IN THE TPW PRODUCT AND 700 MB STREAMLINES. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER PARTS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND SE MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE EPAC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC OCEAN THROUGH GUINEA BISSAU THEN CONTINUES TO NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO 06N40W TO 07N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 05N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 36W AND 43W...AND WITHIN 130 NM BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK MAINTAINING GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N89W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA CLEARLY SHOW THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS IS PRODUCING MAINLY A NE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SE MEXICO AND BELIZE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NW ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA TO SE FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS SOME CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 22N76W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED ON THE E PART OF THE UPPER-TROUGH IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N50W TO 30N56W. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR