000 AXNT20 KNHC 141801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS NEAR 41.4N 61.3W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL BY TONIGHT AND TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N29W TO 09N29W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP MOISTURE IS S OF THE WAVE ALONG 13N WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE N OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N47W TO 07N47W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS S OF 10 N ALONG THE WAVE WITH A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MIXED INTO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 10N...INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N70W TO 10N71W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS IN THIS WAVE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N93W TO THE EPAC NEAR 11N95W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N31W TO 07N46W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 27W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF OF WEST AFRICA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS WITH THE SE PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN WITH NE FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N91W SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 89W. A TROUGH NORTH OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT E OF 89W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...ACROSS CUBA...AND TO HONDURAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N W OF 80W. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...TRADE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER HISPANIOLA AS A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 22N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTHERN ATLC FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FL E COAST. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NW ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO/COBB