000 AXNT20 KNHC 141037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR 40.1N 63.3W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL MODERATE FROM 40N-43N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A NE TO NNE MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...AND TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N27W TO 07N28W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALSO...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 26-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 07N45W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ALSO PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N91W TO THE EPAC NEAR 11N93W...MOVING W AT 20- 25 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N26W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N29W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N35W TO 08N43W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N47W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLANTIC...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM N AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MAINLY E OF 35W AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 04N- 08N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS WITH THE S PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-82W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-77W WHERE A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE W INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE E OF 80W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED W OF 66W. TO THE E...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N25W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO WEAKEN HENCE DECREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. 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