000 AXNT20 KNHC 140521 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR 38.9N 64.9W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL MODERATE FROM 39N-43N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A NE TO NNE MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 20W-29W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N41W TO 08N42W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ALSO PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N89W TO 12N90W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 89W-92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 07N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N26W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 06N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM N AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MAINLY E OF 15W AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 25W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WITH THE S PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W. WITH THESE...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS LOW CENTER SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-81W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-77W WHERE A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE W INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE E OF 80W SUPPORT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 26N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED W OF 66W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N35W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN HENCE DECREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA