000 AXNT20 KNHC 140002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR 38.1N 66.9W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROPICAL STORM CENTER FROM 37N TO 41N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. A NE TO NNE MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 24W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 40W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 65W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR N OF 15N AND A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR W-NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY ALONG 86W...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO EPAC WATERS...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N45W TO 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WITH THE SE PERIPHERY COVERING MOST OF THE GULF BASIN. WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SE CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE OFFSHORE WATERS N 28N AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS WEST OF 90W ALONG WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W-NW CARIBBEAN...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEING DEPICTED BY SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS MOIST AIR ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND IS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY A RIDGE E OF 80W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND THE NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BETWEEN 70W AND 80W EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE SW N ATLC FROM THE U.S. SE CONUS AND FROM THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA...SEE HISPANIOLA SECTION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR