000 AXNT20 KNHC 112332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N27W TO 09N27W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE PREVAILS S OF 14N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE SAHARAN DUST IS OBSERVED N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N43W TO 08N44W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWARD SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO SAHARAN DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 19N68W TO 11N70W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-72W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N29W TO 08N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 08N43W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N46W TO 07N69W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US STATES REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE SE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N89W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE EPAC AND THE CONVECTION RELATED TO IT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 19N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED HENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY N OF 17N AND W OF 75W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 15N AND E OF 73W. THIS CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE POSITION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NW. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ISLAND WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W AND EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE BAMAHAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N AND W OF 64W. TO THE N...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N72W TO 32N64W TO 39N56W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA