000 AXNT20 KNHC 102346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 37W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE HOWEVER...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN AND HENCE AFFECTING THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 61W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY S OF 14N WHILE THE SURROUNDING OF THE WAVE REMAINS DRY AS A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N89W TO THE EPAC NEAR 10N89W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT IN TPW IMAGERY...RAWINDSONDES...AND MODEL ANALYSES AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LARGE MONSOONAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10- 21N AND W OF 89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 09N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N39W AND CONTINUES TO 10N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT ABOUT 50 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE NE GULF. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W EXTENDS NW REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS MAINLY E OF 86W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THEIR ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES CONVECTION- FREE AS A SAHARAN AIRMASS DOMINATES THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILING S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-79W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEREFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 28N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE AND A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA