000 AXNT20 KNHC 101027 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 31W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE FROM 03N-21N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 58W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH INHIBIT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N85W...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA....MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT MODERATE MOIST AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO THE S-SE OF ITS AXIS. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N25W TO 08N37W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND CONTINUES TO 08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N E OF 19W AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EPAC COASTAL WATERS COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W. THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SE BASIN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE DIFFLUENT FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE NE GULF. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN GULF. DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 93W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB CENTER NEAR 29N85W. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND SHEAR DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF HAITI AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT POSSIBLE HAZY CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF EASTERN CUBA ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W THAT SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER E...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N38W TO 28N52W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A 1018 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N57W...FROM WHICH A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 27N59W...NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N31W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR