000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 30W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE FROM 03N-21N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 57W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH INHIBIT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N85W...ACROSS E HONDURAS...E NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA....MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE MOIST AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO THE S-SE OF ITS AXIS. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 12N21W TO 08N29W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N36W AND CONTINUES TO 09N55W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 17N E OF 25W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EPAC COASTAL WATERS COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W...THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE DIFFLUENT FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE NE GULF. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN GULF. DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MODERATE MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THE NW BASIN ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 80W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND SHEAR DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF HAITI AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE ISLAND MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING. A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT POSSIBLE HAZY CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF EASTERN CUBA ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N70W THAT SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER E...A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N46W TO A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 31N57W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N36W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR