000 AXNT20 KNHC 090602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 22W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION N OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 27W WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT MOISTURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 76W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N OF 13N AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE S OF 13N. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 14N AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 87W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N OF 13N THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO 08N25W TO 08N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N38W TO 06N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO WHILE E OF 88W THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NE TENNESSEE COVER THE NE BASIN. S OF 26N...AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF EXTENDING S-SE INTO THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE SE GULF SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 84W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N86W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE WITH AXIS NEAR 76W AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF 17N W OF 86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N73W ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 27N W OF 73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N68W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR