000 AXNT20 KNHC 082341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 15W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 16W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 18N74W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N67W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS STRETCHING FROM OVER TRINIDAD TO THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N75W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 19N84W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-19N BETWEEN 78W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 09N20W TO 09N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N38W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N96W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-87W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 20N76W. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-82W THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND NEAR 24N73W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N73W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 69W-75W. FARTHER NE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N55W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N57W AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM THE LOW SE TO 29N51W THEN NE TO 33N44W MEETING UP WITH A CENTRAL NORTH ATLC COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE MARGINAL AREA OF LIFT ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL FORCING IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 53W-63W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN