000 AXNT20 KNHC 081048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 20W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 71W AND MOVES W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 73W. ELSEWHERE... STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 80W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 80W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. DEEP CONVECTION N OF 13N IS BEING HINDER IN PART DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 07N20W TO 08N29W TO 08N33W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N33W TO 07N46W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N91W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST AIR CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 85W. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PARTLY INHIBITS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 28N85W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER AREA FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NW ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLAND...WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N73W ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N68W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 36N30W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR