000 AXNT20 KNHC 070601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. ...HISPANIOLA... A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR