000 AXNT20 KNHC 291103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND THOSE MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/54W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS...PASSING TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 87W/88W...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W 8N23W TO 6N37W AND 4N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N31W 6N37W 9N44W 9N52W 9N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...TO 25N93W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BELIZE AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N/18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA ALONG 80W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 27N72W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA... WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N/18N AND THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO 31N/32N BETWEEN 65W AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N49W TO 32N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 29N50W 30N54W BEYOND 32N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N21W...TO 29N27W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N59W...EVENTUALLY TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT