000 AXNT20 KNHC 250135 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 06N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT MID-LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...VISIBLE IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N70W TO 09N70W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE AXIS LOCATION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N88W TO THE EPAC NEAR 08N85W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 83W-93W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 09N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N48W TO 06N53W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 21N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED ACROSS THE W GULF IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE AFFECTING THE WATERS W OF 90W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS S OF 23N AND E OF 90W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 31N92W TO 30N87W TO 31N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE AFFECTING THE NE WATERS MAINLY N OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC EXTENDS W THROUGH THE GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE AFFECTING THE BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W WHILE A THIRD WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NORTHERN PORTION CURRENTLY OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AS SAHARAN DUST IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE SAME AREA WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A PAIR OF 1026 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE LOCATED NEAR 27N54W AND 26N34W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA