000 AXNT20 KNHC 241037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 8N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A LARGE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 10N81W MOVING W-SW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N21W TO 7N28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N32W 8N40W 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 4N-10N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA COVERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING ALONG 91W/92W S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS BORDER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS E OF SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE SW GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF FRI AND THE SE GULF SAT. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE FRI IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SW GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. THE SE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH SW CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OVER HAITI REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TODAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY THU. ONLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME FRI INTO SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA/NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 78W WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 79W FROM 27N-31W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N70W TO THE W WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 28N52W EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY S ON SUN. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW