000 AXNT20 KNHC 231758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE FORECAST FOR 18 HOURS...FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/36W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N67W...TO THE ACKLINS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO JAMAICA AND 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RAWINSONDE DATA...TPW AND 700 MB DATA...AND UNIV. OF ALBANY TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.70 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.21 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 14N18W 9N20W AND 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N22W TO 6N36W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN BELIZE...TO 10N94W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... THAT IS FLOWING AWAY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS IN MEXICO...MERGES INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 93W EASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W IN EASTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...TO 28N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA TO BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA...AND THEN THE WIND FLOW CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N71W...TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE SPANS THE AREA FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE ACKLINS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 21N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 70W WESTWARD. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO BE THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...GIVING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N71W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 31N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 27N22W...TO 24N32W...TO A 23N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 18N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 28N24W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO 29N65W...BEYOND 29N81W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT