000 AXNT20 KNHC 231038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO 8N36W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N56W TO 8N55W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N E OF THE WAVE TO 52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE WAVE NEAR 9N55W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N67W ACROSS THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO NEAR 11N71W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE E CARIBBEAN AND A PORTION OF THE SW ATLC. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 62W-70W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF LINE FROM SAINT VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 17N71W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN W CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N19W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N28W 5N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND N OF 27N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER FEATURES ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE THE FAR W GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATE CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N93W TO 26N95W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF FRI. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND INTO THE SE GULF FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR N BELIZE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 82W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL LINGER THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND WED WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY THU. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME FRI INTO SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN NE TO BEYOND 30N68W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N70W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 62W-70W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 28N47W EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 24N/25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TODAY REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW