000 AXNT20 KNHC 221802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE FORECAST FROM 42 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET AT THE START...AND THEN RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 17 FEET AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.68 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.38 IN GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...AND INLAND A BIT IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W 5N35W TO 4N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN AFRICA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FLOWING AWAY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...MERGES INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CURVES TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD 20N BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA AND 82W...AND THEN THE WIND FLOW CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N68W...TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 21N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT END UP IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME LOCATION AS IT HAD AT THE START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE... FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST AND EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CYCLE...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N68W...TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 28N20W...TO A 24N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 24N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N16W...TO 28N25W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 28N65W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT