000 AXNT20 KNHC 221046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 7N- 15N E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N- 10N BETWEEN 47W-49W. COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N56W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N21W TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N30W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W TO E OF THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE S OF 8N TO THE BORDER OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC AND BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N E OF 85W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND CORPUS CHRISTI. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W- 84W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TODAY AHEAD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE THEN REMAIN JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR 27N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N67W COVERING THE SW ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE AREA TO 32N50W. S OF THIS FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 28N46W AND EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 24N/25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE N PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW