000 AXNT20 KNHC 220532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 22/0600 UTC FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 7N TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 8N-17N MOVING NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 84W FROM 17N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA BORDER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W TO E OF THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 5N43W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W- 17W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO S OF TAMPA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W GULF GIVING THE AREA 20N-28N W OF 96W SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING INLAND OVER SW HAITI AND W CUBA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL WAVES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS THE ISLAND HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE THEN REMAIN JUST N OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 68W ANCHORED NEAR 28N73W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W COVERING THE SW ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE AREA TO 32N53W. S OF THIS FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N43W AND EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW