000 AXNT20 KNHC 201741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE WITH TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SOMETIMES AT MINIMUM GALE-FORCE...AND AT OTHER TIMES AT SPEEDS THAT ARE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO PANAMA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE MAINLY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ALONG 89W/90W FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N30W TO 9N32W AND 9N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 8N22W 8N31W 9N38W 11N42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS AT THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN CAMPECHE AND COATZACOALCOS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N87W 26N92W 18N94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 20N INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W... INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.36 IN MONTERREY MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST- TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD... RELATED TO THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IN RELATION TO THE 18N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL STAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH ENDS UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N30W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N34W AND 24N46W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 23N53W...TO AN 18N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N76W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N33W TO 29N40W 27N50W AND 24N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT