000 AXNT20 KNHC 191804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY...AND ARE BEING FORECAST FOR...THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET...AND TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG 85W/86W FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN BELIZE HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN FROM BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W AND 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 8N23W TO 10N32W AND 10N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N88W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA... MOVING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...RELATED TO THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SW TO W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N28W... THROUGH 25N40W...TO A 22N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 24N88W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO/AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS AROUND THE 22N62W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N75W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 22N59W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT